Artificial Intelligence: Reshaping the Geopolitical Landscape

In recent years, following the end of the COVID-19 crisis, the term artificial intelligence (AI) has become omnipresent in public discourse. According to Merriam-Webster, AI is defined as the capability of computer systems or algorithms to imitate intelligent human behavior. This phenomenon is receiving significant attention, but it is neither new nor a sudden occurrence. AI began developing in 1956 with a scientific conference at Dartmouth. Since then, it has seen both advances and setbacks, with notable applications in fields like military, medicine, robotics, and education.

Over time, artificial intelligence has significantly advanced. Today, ordinary people worldwide can use basic smart computer models, but it is clear that the centers of global power—national governments, intelligence agencies, and various organizations—possess models that are years ahead of what is publicly available.

Many analysts warn that AI will replace and subordinate human beings. This is a highly debatable claim. AI is a technology created by humans with all their imperfections, similar to how the Industrial Revolution in the 18th century did not replace humans. It is unlikely AI will do so either. However, individuals who do not use AI tools will be unable to keep up with those who do. The same applies to the international political arena. States, multilateral organizations, and movements that utilize AI will remain competitive, while those that do not will stagnate and decline.

According to S&P Global, between 2013 and 2023, 5,509 AI companies were founded in the United States, with total private investments reaching approximately $335.2 billion. During the same period, China saw the establishment of 1,446 AI companies, with private investments amounting to about $103.7 billion.

Russian President Vladimir Putin stated in 2017 that AI is the future, not only for Russia but for all of humanity. He noted that whoever becomes the leader in this field will become the ruler of the world. In December 2017, Donald Trump signed a new National Security Strategy emphasizing the importance of AI for national security and economic development. The strategy states that continued American leadership in AI is crucial for preserving the economic and national security of the United States. In October 2022, Chinese President Xi Jinping declared that China must accelerate achieving a high level of scientific and technological self-reliance and improvement, clearly referring to AI.

Artificial intelligence is a tool reshaping geopolitics on a multidimensional level. AI could significantly alter the way we understand international relations and diplomacy. The sooner policymakers realize this, the better. AI introduces mathematical models into diplomacy, transforming it into a more technologically driven field. In geopolitical terms, AI’s use is most important in two interconnected areas: diplomacy and national security.

AI is transforming the conduct of bilateral and multilateral relations. National governments and leading commissions in organizations such as the UN, EU, and BRICS are actively using smart technology—from basic real-time translations to the creation of complex analyses. Diplomats can communicate more easily with their colleagues, receiving instant translations and real-time suggestions from virtual assistants.

AI can facilitate diplomatic negotiations by analyzing historical relationships, proposing new strategies for improving relations, and offering guidance on negotiation styles. It can compare historical and current contexts to offer constructive proposals. Beyond negotiation content, outcomes are influenced by style. If the style is wrong, the outcome may be negative even if the idea itself is good.

Based on available data, AI programs can predict the early onset of crises and wars. AI can recommend which countries should receive peacekeeping missions before a crisis erupts or where peacekeepers should be withdrawn. Similarly, governments can use computer models to present diplomatic negotiations and agreements to the public in a more acceptable way to ensure support.

Artificial intelligence is becoming a key military tool for many powerful states and organizations. The United States uses AI to develop autonomous drones, defend against cyberattacks, and analyze military intelligence. China applies AI in mass surveillance systems, facial recognition, and unmanned technology. Russia uses AI for cyber defense, automating military systems, and analyzing satellite and intelligence data. Israel employs AI in several key military systems, the most famous being the “Iron Dome,” which helps rapidly detect and intercept threats.

NATO uses AI to forecast conflicts, protect communication networks, manage logistics, and optimize military operations. All mentioned countries also use AI for cyber warfare and to protect against foreign cyberattacks. The use of AI can offer advantages on the battlefield but also increases the risk of conflict escalation. Therefore, there is a growing need for international rules and oversight on AI in the military sector.

All significant global powers have realized that a race is underway to develop artificial intelligence for political purposes. American companies like Google, Amazon, and Microsoft are developing computer models to help the U.S. maintain its status as the world’s most powerful country and to preserve organizations such as NATO, the G7, OAS, IMF, and the World Bank. The Chinese are using AI to advance their Belt and Road Initiative. The Digital Silk Road focuses on the development of digital infrastructure, technology, and internet networks wherever the Belt and Road passes (Asia, Africa, Europe). China aims to establish itself as the world’s new technological leader.

Russia primarily develops AI tools for propaganda purposes, subtly reshaping the narrative unfavorable to them in parts of the world. The European Union seeks to position itself as a leader in ethical AI use, promoting a global framework for moral application. BRICS countries like India, Brazil, and South Africa place less emphasis on ethics, using AI mainly to develop their economies and redefine global power structures.

Thanks to the development of advanced analytical tools and predictive algorithms, AI has been widely used in international relations and diplomacy since the 2010s. Its advantages—such as precise data processing and rapid solution proposals—make AI an indispensable tool in modern diplomacy. However, when, how much, and in what way it will be used depends on people—the decision-makers. AI is a mathematical model with its own shortcomings and requires skilled experts to be used appropriately. The risks are significant.